BluegrassForeclosure.com

Unfortunately, I don’t have a perfect crystal ball, but here are the few things that might happen regarding foreclosure, REO, and other real estate investments.

1.  Home prices should stabilize.  Here is why from DSNews.com:

The second half of 2010 will be a time of stabilization or a “renewed leg down” in housing, and it all depends on how aggressively the industry can rein in the swell of foreclosures, according to a new study from the research team at Credit Suisse.

“We estimate that roughly 3.2 million foreclosures must be prevented in 2010 for home prices to stabilize or potentially tick up,” the institution’s analysts wrote in their report. The researchers called the feat an “uphill challenge,” with a very narrow path for success carved out by government programs.

2.  Foreclosure rates will continue to rise in the first half of 2010, but should flatten out the second half, as unemployment rates finally stabilize.  Also from DSNews.com:

While delinquencies continue to rise, foreclosures have slowed due to the government’s foreclosure prevention initiatives. At this point, the housing market has achieved a very tentative sense of balance that could swing to either a modest upside or a significant downside, the report noted.

3.  Commercial properties will go into foreclosure and be a good investment.  Again from DSNews.com:

Commercial real estate values in the United States have sunk to their lowest level in seven years, with properties now carrying price tags not seen since 2002. And although they’re still falling, data from Moody’s Investors Service shows that the rate of depreciation has notably slowed.

4.  Pent up Credit demands will raise interest rates.  From Peter G. Miller as posted on RealtyTrac.com:

Increasing interest rates (because pent-up credit demand is huge, unfortunately higher rates also mean more foreclosures).

5. Further complications from state’s having tough budget times.  Also from Peter G. Miller as posted on RealtyTrac.com:

A reduction of state services and employment (because states cannot print money, many states are required to have balanced budgets and tax revenues have fallen).

6. Programs designed to prevent foreclosure finally can’t hold back the tide.

Also, this points to why the foreclosure rate will continue to rise during the first half of 2010.  ARM’s (adjustable rate mortgages) will continue to reset and/or banks simply cannot hold off on not adjusting them any further.  So many ARM’s that have held off will likely go up.

Many loss mitigation programs that had been trying to work out plans, will finally let loose much of the loans that are in default.  These banks will have no choice but to let them go to foreclosure.

Well, there is a plethora of stories to choose from that made headlines.  Not just here in Kentucky, but across the country and affecting every part of globe really.  But here are the top stories for the Kentucky foreclosure industry.

1. Record number of foreclosures across all counties.  Every single county in Kentucky saw record number of foreclosures filed.  Some counties were especially hard hit, with Jefferson and Fayette leading the way.  But there isn’t a single community that didn’t feel the pinch from one of their neighbors losing their home.

2.  First time homebuyers had unprecedented options.  With so many houses hitting the market through foreclosure, the $8,000.00 tax credit from the Feds, and relatively low interest rates for those who qualified, first-time buyers could pick up the deal of a lifetime.  While it certainly had an effect on Kentucky, it had an even bigger effect nationwide.

3.  Interest rates remained low, credit difficult to obtain though.  Playing fast and loose last year caused many a bank to get burned.  But this year, banks swung wildly back the other way, tightening their grip on credit too much.  You could still get credit, but it certainly came with more strings attached and more hoops to jump through.  There must be a better way to gauge a person and/or a business’s credit worthiness.  If you know what that is, please let us know.

4.  Sub-prime was soooo 2008, the Prime market got hit in 2009.  With such high levels of unemployment, it was a matter of time before prime loans would start defaulting.  That trend is likely to continue in 2010.  See our predictions for 2010, coming next.

5.  From Nicole Mickle and her article about 2009: FDIC closed over 128 banks and more are projected to close. This is an incredible (and scary) statistic. This completely turned our economy upside down, creating many job losses and overall financial loss for many across the nation and the entire globe.  Check out her article at ezinearticles.com.

6. Also from Nicole Mickle:  Home values went completely downhill, making it a buyer’s market while sellers were completely losing their shirts. But now at year’s end, home values are starting to level off and stabilize in most real estate markets across the nation. This last part is great news!

So that’s the roundup that I came up with.  What major stories would you have added?

Overall, massive foreclosure rates is not good for the economy.  We like to make sure that people have the ability to invest in foreclosures, if they want.  But if you are looking for good tips to prevent foreclosure, then check out this Courier-Journal article.

The top ten tips are:

1. Don’t Wait

2. Organize important papers

3. Get informed

4. Go to www.hud.gov

5. Call for Foreclosure prevention help

6. Bug your lender again and again and again

7. Slash your expenses

8. Scan for Scams

9. Consider a short sale

10. Know when to fold ‘em

Read the rest of the article.

From the Kentucky Office of Unemployment and Training:  Kentucky’s seasonally adjusted preliminary unemployment rate declined .7 percentage point to 10.6 percent in November 2009 from a revised 11.3 percent in October 2009, according to the Office of Employment and Training (OET), an agency of the Kentucky Education and Workforce Development Cabinet. November 2009’s jobless rate is 3.4 percentage points higher than the 7.2 percent rate recorded in November 2008.

“Kentucky’s economy continued to show signs of stabilization in November 2009.  However, individuals who have faced long-term unemployment dropping out of the labor force and a rise in the number of people working part-time for economic reasons contributed to the decline in the unemployment rate,” said Dr. Justine Detzel, OET chief labor market analyst.

The U.S. seasonally adjusted jobless rate decreased from 10.2 percent in October 2009 to 10 percent in November 2009, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. This 10 percent rate is .6 percentage point below the 10.6 percent rate recorded in Kentucky in November 2009.

The remaining information is well worth the read.

Here’s an interesting site that is worth a second look.  They cover the Cincinnati and N. Kentucky areas.  If you love auctions as I do, it is a good idea to get on their email list to get all of their newest auction info.

Check them out, Everything But the House at www.ebth.org.

I apologize, but my site got hacked, so if you have tried to access BGForeclosure recently, please check back soon.

From the Kentucky Office of Unemployment and Training:  Unemployment rates rose in all 120 Kentucky counties between November 2008 and November 2009, according to the Kentucky Office of Employment and Training, an agency of the Kentucky Education and Workforce Development Cabinet.

Fayette County recorded the lowest jobless rate in the Commonwealth at 7.1 percent. It was followed by Calloway County, 7.5 percent; Woodford County, 7.6 percent; Scott County, 8 percent; Boyd, Jessamine and Madison counties, 8.1 percent each; Rowan County, 8.2 percent; Oldham County, 8.3 percent; and Franklin and Ohio counties, 8.5 percent each.

Magoffin County recorded the state’s highest unemployment rate — 21.1 percent. It was followed by Metcalfe County, 18 percent; Jackson County, 16.9 percent; Powell County, 16.6 percent; Trigg County, 15.9 percent; Grayson County, 15.8 percent; Menifee County, 14.4 percent; Wolfe County, 14.2 percent; Lewis County, 13.8 percent; and Edmonson County, 13.7 percent.

Click here to read the remaining article.  With 6 counties having unemployment rates above 15%, foreclosures are likely to continue.

Here is a conundrum for the upcoming census.  “The Census Bureau faces special challenges next year locating residents because of foreclosures, as well as immigrants wary of government workers amid a crackdown on illegal immigration.”

The immigration issue has been one to plague the last several times a census was done.  However, with foreclosures spreading across every community, tracking down individuals will be a little harder this year.

Some good news, at least for the short run.  Lexington-Bluegrass Association of Realtors (“LBAR“) reporting that home sales are up dramatically in November 2009 from one year ago.

“Sales increased a staggering 48% in November 09 vs. November 08. Sales reported closed in November 2009 were 682 compared to 461 in November 2008.  This jump in sales reflects the high number of buyers who took advantage of the $8,000 first time homebuyers tax credit.

Median sales prices remained stable for single family residential listings in Nov. 09 vs. Nov. 08. Months of inventory has decreased from 13.7 months in Nov. 08 to 8.8 months in Nov. 09. A balanced market contains 5-6 months of inventory. This decrease is a sign that the local market is headed in the right direction.”

I guess it is a good thing that the Feds extended the first time buyers tax credit.

For the upcoming holidays, we wish you all the best, a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Thanks for making BluegrassForeclosure a success this year.

Next week, we will look at the year in review and give you some tips for next year. If you have any suggestions for stories of the year or trends you are seeing in your area, please leave a comment or drop a line.